Rule 14 of 19 · Chapter III — Let Time Do the Work

Don't try to time the market

Why this rule exists

The urge to buy at the bottom and sell at the top is universal and almost impossible to satisfy. It requires being right twice, when to leave and when to return, and the biggest gains often come in a handful of days scattered unpredictably among the scary ones. Miss a few of those by sitting in cash, waiting for a clearer sky, and your long-term return quietly collapses. The market spends most of its life near a high, and the people who do best are usually the ones who simply stayed in their seats.

In practice

Invest on a schedule regardless of the headlines: the same amount, at the same interval, in good times and bad. This way you buy more when prices are low and less when they are high, without having to predict anything. When a downturn comes, the plan is to keep buying, not to flee; when everyone is euphoric, the plan is to keep your allocation, not to pile in. Automating your contributions is the simplest defense against your own worst timing instincts. Boring and consistent beats clever and occasional.

When it doesn't apply

Rebalancing back to your target mix, trimming what has grown large and topping up what has shrunk, is not market timing. It is discipline, done on a schedule rather than a hunch. And as a real deadline for the money approaches, deliberately shifting toward safety is prudent, not prediction.